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Country Scan

Country Scan

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The Country Growth Scan is a diagnostic tool designed to help economists understand a country's relative economic growth story. Completing the diagnostic is the initial step for Bank teams conducting a CEM (Country Economic Memorandum), which is a standardized growth report that country economists complete regularly.  Each fiscal year, CEMs are conducted for an average of 15 countries.

 

I was asked by WBG macroeconomic leadership to design the diagnostic tool that underpinned the CEM exercise; the Country Scan tool. I designed the tool around a 20 guiding question framework —10 macroeconomic and 10 microeconomic (firm-level) questions —developed by Bank subject matter experts and senior leadership. The tool uses benchmarking to show a country's relative performance along a variety of topics such as productivity, structural change, trade, fiscal, human capital, among many others.  Based on a two-step process, the tool uses manhattan distances and other econometric techniques to suggest parameters for analysis. Importantly, I intentionally designed the tool to be flexible and ultimately require users to input final selections, based on the premise that growth analysis is an art, not just a science. The tool produces exactly 100 expert-informed charts in seconds.

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Traditionally, country economists use the diagnostic outputs to inform the traditional first "macroeconomic growth" chapter of their CEMs, as well as to identify topics that warrant in-depth analysis for subsequent chapters. 

Coverage

  • 197 countries
  • 1970-latest year
  • 22 economic sectors
  • Disaggreation by firm size, genders, levels of education, etc. when applicable
  • ISIC trade product classification​​

Methodologies

 
  • ​Growth decompositions
  • World Bank Job Diagnostics
  • Macro econometric instruments
  • Manhattan distance techniques
  • Firm-level survey analysis

Data Sources

  • World Development Indicators 
  • IMF World Economic Outlook
  • IMF Balance of Payments 
  • World Integrated Trade Systems​
  • World Bank Enterprise Surveys
  • ​Kaufman and Kraay Worldwide Governance Indicators
  • World Economic Forum
  • Transparency International
  • Barro & Lee
  • Economist Intelligence Unit
  • INSEAD
  • ...among many others

The User Experience

First, the ​user navigates to an intranet SharePoint page. Here, they click the 'Data Generator' where they follow five guided steps:

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  1. Identify the target country they are working on​

  2. Select historical periods and recent periods for the analysis. They can choose to conduct a structural break test or assessment of GDP growth (which are automated on the page) to inform their selection. 

  3. Identify possible structurally similar countries for benchmarking. The tool allows for parameters to explore which countries could make sense.​

  4. Identify aspirational countries for benchmarking. The tool features options for selecting key aspirational indicators (e.g. higher growth, more jobs, etc.), to place weights on the importance of said indicators, and then suggests possible peers.

  5. Based on selections, the tool generates a customized database. This database is downloaded as a CSV. 

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Next, the ​user downloads the Excel interface. The CSV database is uploaded into the Excel tool which then generates 100 customized graphs and tables.

Excel Interface - Sample Outputs

Data Generator - Sample Outputs

​To build the Country Growth Scan tool, I took the following steps: 

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  1. Consulted with subject matter experts on which key indicators and methodologies to include for their growth topic within the tool. 

  2. Downloaded, cleaned, and consolidated the data from all sources.

  3. Wrote Stata code that a) calculated relevant indicators and b) generated the customized panel database based on user inputs.

  4. Oversaw and worked with an analyst who

    1. ​Coded the initial user online interface in R Shiny.

    2. Used R Studio to write the code for the "Data Generator" page.

  5. Designed and built the user interface in Excel, writing the Excel formulas to create the dynamic charts and data tables.

  6. Created a landing page in SharePoint Online to house the Data Generator, Excel Interface, and methodology notes. ​

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Importantly, as a I designed and built the tool, I met regularly with both Bank leadership and a focus group of country economists. These sessions ensured the tool was meeting the needs of country economists, as well as up to the quality standard set by Bank leadership. 

How I Built It

DISCLAIMER:

The tool developed on this page was delivered to the World Bank Group. The tool itself is a property of the World Bank Group. The data utilized for the tool was publicly available data. The methodologies were developed by World Bank Group economists. 

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